During the long, long winters in between Game Of Thrones seasons, fans love to speculate who'll die next -- and who should die from their sheer stupidity. Now, one computer programmer claims he has found an algorithm to successfully augur the likelihood of which main characters will soon be meeting their Lord of Light.
Taylor Larkin, a "data science evangelist" working for DataRobot, employed a machine learning technique called gradient boosting (which can use wide decision trees to map probability) to calculate the chances of death of our most beloved GOT characters and Bran. The algorithm is based on information on a character's house, culture, title, status, gender, and family mortality rate -- which must be why the all the remaining Starks just got a "yikes" out of 10.
Some of the biggest losers according to DataRobot are Daenerys Targaryen (who has a 83.77 percent chance of death) and Jaime Lannister (72.91 percent, one point for each pound of his massive golden hand). To get the necessary info, the machine scraped the data of over 2,000 characters logged in the biggest A Song Of Ice And Fire wiki. So its findings are based mostly on the books instead of the TV show, which explains why the machine thinks the Tyrell family is the safest in Westeros, when most of them are currently a congealed pool of goo at the bottom of a crater.
Of course, these kinds of death algorithms have been tried on previous seasons, but those all turned out to be less than accurate -- not like this one, surely. In fact, we're so confident about the predictions that we created our own Cracked machine learning algorithm based on DataRobot's model to include how exactly these characters are going to die.
Here's a look at both their odds and the Cracked Doom Guessinator, and we have to say, it all looks pretty cut and dry.
Gendry -- 39.87 percent. Freak rowboat accident.
Sansa Stark -- 50.28 percent. Crushed under the weight of her many, many fur cloaks.
Bran Stark -- 66.02 percent. Death by fan vote.
Cersei Lannister -- 60.39 percent. Killed by Arya Stark, who was disguised as her favorite wine glass all along.
Arya Stark -- 49.04 percent. Accidental alcohol poisoning.
Tyrion Lannister -- 70.76 percent. Whatever kind of noble yet pithy sacrifice increases his chances for another Best Supporting Actor Emmy.
Jaime Lannister -- 72.91 percent. He finally gets around to watching Gods Of Egypt and dies of abashment.
Daenerys Targaryen -- 83.77 percent. Someone finally figures out Targaryens work according to Wizard Of Oz rules and throws a bucket of water on her.
Jon Snow -- 58.99 percent. He just gets too sad.
Euron Greyjoy - 54.95 percent. Late-onset mermaid syphilis.
Hang on, it seems that we accidentally fed the Guessinator our own Game Of Thrones fanfiction instead of the actual data. Oh well, guess we'll have to wait and see who'll actually die of syphilis just like everyone else!
For more attempts at witticism and his personal recipes for toilet wine, do follow Cedric on Twitter.
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