5 Predictions For The Dumb 2020 Election Season

The media's biases are driven by their audience and what their audience wants is drama. In an election year, this means they need A) new and fresh storylines and B) a close election. So newsrooms will be digging frantically for something in Biden's past and they'll no doubt find it (if politicians were good people, they wouldn't be in politics). The conservative outlets will pick it up first (maybe Fox News or The Daily Caller) and other outlets like CNN will have to jump on it or risk losing audience. As a result ...

"But," you say, "doesn't everyone hate him now, after weeks of headlines about COVID-19 deaths, Black Lives Matter protests and *waves hand to indicate the state of the world in general*?" Not really! Trump's approval rating never moves more than a couple of points either way -- the pandemic and the world generally being a shitshow have dropped his approval to 41%, which is actually up a bit from this point in 2017, right after he took office.

He has a rock-solid base of 40% or so, and then another five to six points of "I'll express my displeasure in conversation but really don't want my taxes to go up." Some of those people will start showing for him in the polling once the media narrative flips to "Trump comeback" in the fall. That's when you'll see headlines about a "surprisingly strong" debate performance from Trump, that kind of thing. Again: The media's goal is for it to be anybody's ballgame on election night.

BONUS PREDICTION: Around October, Trump will propose a massive middle class tax cut.

A shortage of poll workers, plus infection precautions slowing everything down, means November will be a mess unless we let people vote some other way -- most Americans can't afford to spend an entire work day standing in line. Meanwhile, Republicans have exerted legal and political pressure nationwide to prevent any expansion of voting by mail (acting under orders from Trump himself, who recently claimed mail voting would allow evil foreigners to steal the election).

There are thus all sorts of complicated legal battles playing out in various states. Take Florida, a state that Trump literally cannot win without: Voting rights groups have already filed a lawsuit there demanding a bundle of changes to overcome limitations caused by the pandemic. For example, COVID-19 has seriously screwed over the normal processes for voter registration (often done door-to-door or at public events) so changes would need to be made just to maintain the status quo. To keep turnout down, the Republican governor there can simply make some accommodations while quietly refusing others.

In an election that is destined to be close in the electoral college (all presidential elections are close these days) and even closer when it comes to the Senate, a hundred thousand blocked votes in minority neighborhoods is all it will take to change world history. Stopping those votes requires nothing other than inaction. It's kind of like that scene in Breaking Bad where Walter White kills Jesse's girlfriend by just standing by and allowing her to choke on her own vomit.

I don't think Trump will start an all-out war just to win an election. I actually don't think he wants to fight a war in general (remember when pundits insisted the assassination of Qasem Soleimani meant we were in all-out war with Iran?). But he can still do something that generally shifts the national mood onto some kind of war footing, thinking that Americans will rally around the flag (and, by extension, their current president).

If I had to guess, I'd say it will involve China somehow, complete with lots of talk about how every American COVID-19 death is really China's fault (they've actually been beating that drum for a while). Whatever he does, it doesn't have to include any cruise missiles taking flight; it just has to dominate headlines for a few weeks (pushing aside whatever scandal he has going at the time) and make Trump look Strong and Presidential to his fans. Lots of tough talk, some warships moving into disputed waters and a resolution that Trump can spin as China backing down. Maybe they'll sink a boat at some point, like a small one or something.

Fox will eat it up, then MSNBC will howl that this is WWIII. Trump will then spin the outrage into, "Democrats are rooting for China!" It will all be stupid as hell. That, of course, leads me to the one prediction I'm most confident about:

This is the world's safest bet. At the end of the day, the media just can't help but operate on Trump's not-quite-human wavelength, engaging in a petty back-and-forth that always winds up helping him. Mockery of his weight, skin tone or how he drinks water just boosts his image as a regular guy who's getting picked on by the media elites. Journalists, meanwhile, still think they live in a bizarro world in which catching Trump making racist jokes or sexist boasts actually hurts him in the polls. Anyone who thought the Access Hollywood tape would sink his chances was badly out of touch with middle America and probably still is.

The result is a president who thinks/knows that the media's obsession with the Dumb Bullshit of the Week makes him their puppet master, so he's motivated to keep pushing it further and further. He'll repeat outrageous lies, he'll continue to perform everyday tasks in a way that makes him seem like an alien wearing an ill-fitting human suit. Only he's sensing that he's in the endgame now. All bets are off.

Trump rode to the White House on a simple machine: Intentionally doing or saying outrageous things, then playing the victim when the backlash comes. Now there's nothing for him to do but keep the pedal to the floor until the engine explodes. All we can do is hang on.