2010 World Cup Predicted

Two men: Simon Kuper and Stefan Szymanski (try pronouncing that) believe that they have developed a formula which can predict past and future world cup winners.

Vegas eat your heart out

Just The Facts

  1. Only team to beat Brasil since 1998 in a world cup tournament has been France

Formula for success

The magical formula takes into account:

the ratio between the two nations populations - which makes sense because the more people a nation has the more likely it is to have talented soccer players

The countries gross domestic product per head - higher this number is means the more resources the country has to contribute to each individuals talent

Experience the country has in playing soccer (football? soccer? wtv?)

AND they also figured in a "x" factor in order to establish some sort of home team advantage for the host country - remember south korea in 2002 - semi finals WTF?

All of these calculations are put into a complex formula, and run 1000 times in order to get an average winner.

History shows it works

The formula has been used on international results from 1980 up til now to predict the goal differential and has a success rate of 72% (I'll take those odds).

Also when the average goal differential of the game is less than 0.1, the authors look at the teams previous experience in penalty shots to break the deadlock (don't bet on england then).

And the winner is...

And who is going to win this summer? What a surprise: Brasil. But the most obvious favorite of all time now has science behind it as these 2 men really believe that they have figured it out.

The real surprise is the other finalist, which is predicted to be serbia. Serbia? A team which has not even seen what the semi-finals look like in the competition since a magical year in 1950. The computer picked them to beat out heavy favorite Spain, in the semi-final round.

What is really interesting is the group stage where teams like Honduras, New Zealand, and even Portugal (haha) are expected to make it out of their group.

I am not saying that this is the real thing but any computer telling me where to put my money is my friend.