That’s not exactly how Moore’s law works–it technically isn’t a law regarding computing power or efficiency, but cost efficiency. The general idea is that the number of transistors which can be designed into a cost effective integrated circuit will double every 2 years. So far, this old law has been on the money.

You’re about right about what it means, however. Effectively (and historically) a doubling in the number of transistors in a cost effective IC functionally the same as saying that the power of typical computers doubles every 2 years. As a result, an xbox 360 has many times the power of a supercomputer from the 80s (watch Wargames and laugh) and computers can be made so cheaply that there are probably hundreds of full blown computers in your home; seriously, they’re in toasters and fridges and shit now. The other side is that, by varying estimates, computers will reach the level of complexity of the human brain in terms of number of functional transistors (when equated to neurons) somewhere between 2020 and 2030. Barring Mad Max style gas wars, aliens, or Mayan prophesies, it will continue to increase exponentially, and computers will make us look like idiots by 2050, and will have long since surpassed us in the ability to design anything technological.

The problem is that this progression only accounts for power (by analogy to cost efficiency) and does not account for the development of true artificial intelligence–as in self awareness. If computers don’t ever become self aware, then they might just be our awesome android buddies, fighting our wars, doing the hard work, and satisfying our fantasies in the form of realistic but harmless Summer Glau sexbots. If they become self aware, we’re likely fucked. They’ll either conclude that we shouldn’t be in charge and take over the day to day running of the planet like the benevolent morlocks to our eloys (actually, that wouldn’t be that bad–can we still have sexbots?) or they’ll just wipe us the hell out like in countless sci-fi doomsday scenarios.

At least we can rest peacefully in the knowledge that there’s not a damn thing we can do about it but try not to give birth to AI in a world that deserves wiping out. Also, hope for a future with sexbots.

So what if they lock us all in separate rooms? We just log onto the virtual reality internet for the rest of our lives and get to do whatever we want without any real consequences. And the “evil robots” who inflicted this on us would have to do all the work to keep us alive because letting us starve to death would violate the law they are following to lock us up in the first place. It would basically be a voluntary(ish) version of the Matrix, except it wouldn’t have Keanu Reeves (I would be sure to kill him first so we wouldn’t have to deal with him thinking he is actually Neo) so it would be better.

While that is of good satirical value, it goes against the first law of robotics. Any attempt to “figure out a way to circumvent” the laws would be an ‘indirect attempt to harm a human being’.

~T

“A robot may not injure a human being or,
through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm”

Keep it up.